Québec voters

Yesterday, Lysiane Gagnon reported in The Globe and Mail that, according to a recent survey by Léger Marketing, the Bloc has the most support in Québec, at 31 percent, four points ahead of the NDP. The Liberals are lagging behind at 22 percent. And the Conservatives are at the bottom with a miserable 14 percent.

Since voters in my province are now back in the old fold of the Bloc Québécois, less than a year after giving 59 seats to the NDP, the columnist points out that "it is an understatement to say Québec voters are volatile".

Volatile?... let's check this out...

• In 1993, 49% of the voters in Québec gave 56 seats the Bloc.
• In 1997, 38% gave 44 seats.
• In 2000, 40% gave 38 seats.
• In 2004, 49% gave 54 seats.
• In 2006, 42% gave 51 seats.
• In 2008, 38% gave 49 seats.
• In 2011, 23% gave 4 seats.

Hmmm... apart from the fling voters had with Jack last summer, results seem to revolve around the 44% mark (±6%). I don't see much volatility. Am I looking at this the right way? Or perhaps, Mrs Gagnon is referring to the fact that current support has yet to reach normal levels again... nah... that's not it.

Mrs Gagnon is denouncing the Québécois' short honeymoon with the federalist party as if it were some sort of surprise. How could that be? Another survey [in French] by Léger Marketing, found that 3 out of 4 Québécois are against the constitutional status quo. And guess what?... the only alternative on the table is the sovereigntists' proposal.

This looks like the slow, but steady, return to the previous equilibrium.